Um Modelo Numérico de Previsão de Tempo a Curto Prazo Para a Região Sudeste do Brasil

Abstract

This paper presents the results of the application of a subsynoptic advection model to the south and southeastern parts of Brazil. The model predicts the evolution of the 500 mb (synoptic scale) and 1000 mb (subsynoptic scale) geopotencial heights, including the effects of topography and latitude. Sensitivity tests with respect to model parameters are presented and discussed. Model runs with real data show fairly good agreement between observed and forecasted fields. The operational use of the model is discussed.