LIMITED EFFECTIVENESS OF EL NIÑOS IN CAUSING DROUGHTS IN NE BRAZIL AND THE PROMINENT ROLE OF ATLANTIC PARAMETERS

Abstract

Though El Niños are popularly believed to be associated with droughts in NE Brazil, not all El Niños are effective. During 1871-1998, there were 52 El Niños, out of which 31 were associated with droughts and 21 were not associated. The failures are mainly due to the intervention of conditions in the Atlantic. The mass media needs to take this into account and minimize their exaggerated expectations of droughts during El Niño years.

Keywords :El Niños; Droughts; NE Brazil; Atlantic.

Efetividade limitada de El Niños em causar secas no NE do Brasil e o papel proeminente do parâmetros do Atlântico

Embora popularmente acredita-se que os El Niños estejam associados à secas no nordeste do Brasil, nem todos os El Niños são efetivos. Durante 1871-1998 houveram 52 eventos El Niños, dos quais 31 estiveram associados com secas e 21 não estiveram. Estas falhas estão principalmente associadas às condições do Atlântico. A Mídia de massa precisa levar isto em conta e minimizar sua exagerada expectativa de secas durante os anos de El Niño.

Keywords :El Niño; Seca; Nordeste do Brasil; Atlântico.